A poll released by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation on April 5 surveyed 1,435 registered voters on their intentions for multiple statewide races. Among the results, the poll shows incumbent Republicans leading in primary runoff races in May and potential general election matchups in November.
“Republicans are certainly the favorites to win in November, but they have not yet put these contests away,” Mark Jones, THPF director of research and analytics, said in a press release. “Texans continue to lean toward Republican candidates, as they have for many years, but Democrats still have time to make these elections competitive.”
In the matchup between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, Abbott leads 50% to 42% among likely voters. The gap widens among “almost certain voters,” where Abbott leads 53% to 41%.
Almost certain voters are a subset of likely voters who are considered most likely to turn out in the November election, according to the poll.
Our new poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke 50-42 among likely voters. #txlege #TX2022 https://t.co/qcvrXBAZ1n pic.twitter.com/WRE0XQXdRZ
— Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (@TexHPF) April 5, 2022
Additionally, 51% of Independents said they prefer Abbott, while 19% said they would vote for O’Rourke and 19% are undecided. Abbott leads among men, white and older populations, while O’Rourke is more favorable among Black, women and younger voters, according to the poll. O’Rourke also leads among Hispanics 53% to 39%.
“If Democrats intend to win the Governor’s race or other statewide elections this November, they are going to have to significantly increase their advantage among Hispanic voters,” THPF CEO Jason Villalba said in the release. “If Republicans are successful in continuing to narrow the gap among Hispanic voters, they will be nearly impossible to beat in November.”
These results are different from a recent Lyceum poll showing Abbott’s lead at just 42% to 40% against O’Rourke. However, in the Lyceum poll, it is acknowledged that the respondents are more diverse than the actual pool of voters and those who responded were registered voters, as opposed to likely voters in the THPF poll.
“Pretty much tied” pic.twitter.com/0BSvYvk32D
— Beto O’Rourke (@BetoORourke) April 4, 2022
In the Republican runoff for attorney general, incumbent Ken Paxton has a commanding lead over Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Of likely voters, 65% said they would vote for Paxton, while 23% intend to vote for Bush.
The poll found 40% of Republicans said they would “never” vote for Bush for attorney general. Of the top reasons why these Republican voters said they wouldn’t vote for him, 66% said it is because he is a member of the Bush family. Other top reasons included Bush’s oversight of The Alamo and that he is “not conservative enough.”
“The battles we are facing are too important for conservatives to be betrayed by an inexperienced member of the ‘Bush Dynasty’ yet again, [and] it is obvious Texans know it,” Paxton wrote in a Twitter thread.
Today’s poll from @TexHPF showing my campaign ahead by 42 points proves that Texas conservatives are speaking with a unified voice that they don’t trust George P. Bush to hold the line against the radical Left’s dangerous agenda.
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) April 5, 2022
For the Democratic runoff in the attorney general’s race, former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza leads former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski 46% to 31%. In a general election matchup between two party frontrunners, Paxton leads Garza 48% to 42% among likely voters.
In the runoff for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, auditor and energy expert Mike Collier leads State Rep. Michelle Beckley 43% to 31%. In a matchup between incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Collier, the poll found Patrick leading 49% to 43%.